Texas Democrats didn’t just show up early — they showed up in numbers that haven’t been seen in nearly two decades.
With nearly 2.5 million Texans casting early ballots ahead of the 2026 primary elections, Democrats are outpacing Republicans statewide, and nowhere is that gap more striking than in Dallas County, where Democratic early votes alone approached 188,000 — a record for the county and a figure that’s turning heads well beyond North Texas. Republicans, by comparison, logged roughly 64,000 early votes in the same county. That’s not a gap. That’s a canyon.
A Record That Puts 2008 Back in the Conversation
To understand just how unusual this turnout is, consider the baseline. On a typical primary day in Dallas County, you might see somewhere between 1,000 and 3,000 combined early voters. This cycle, Democrats alone were averaging roughly 17,000 per day, with Republicans coming in under 6,000. Election observers are already reaching back to the Obama wave of 2008 — when Dallas County hit its all-time high of 35% voter turnout — to find anything remotely comparable. Early voting has now pushed the county to about 17% of registered voters, already edging past the 16% mark set during the 2018 midterms, which were themselves considered a high-water moment for Democratic enthusiasm.
Mark Jones, a political analyst at Rice University, put it plainly. “Typically, about 60 percent of the Democratic vote is cast early and the rest on election day,” Jones told FOX 4’s Steven Dial. That ratio matters enormously right now, because the Democratic Senate primary is anything but settled.
Two Candidates, One Very Tight Race
The contest at the center of all this energy is the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, where Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico are locked in what analysts describe as a genuinely competitive race — the kind where election day turnout doesn’t just shape the outcome, it is the outcome. Crockett, who has built a national profile and a loyal following in progressive circles, is leaning hard into her underdog-turned-frontrunner narrative. “Six years ago they told me I would not win,” she said. “Everyone who could endorse against me did — but the people said otherwise.”
Talarico isn’t backing down. He’s pitching electability as his defining argument, pointing to his track record in competitive territory. “I am the only candidate who has been in a competitive general election,” he argued. “I am the only candidate who has flipped a seat like this.” It’s the kind of contrast that plays differently depending on which room you’re standing in.
Houston, Black Voters, and the Math That’s Left
So where does this race actually get decided? Possibly in Houston, on election day, among voters who haven’t cast a ballot yet. Both campaigns were in the city on the eve of the March 3 primary, and it’s no coincidence. Jones noted that record turnout from Black voters has already been observed, and Crockett is banking heavily on that community showing up in force. “One of the reasons why the candidates are in Houston today is to get those Black voters who haven’t voted to vote on election day, with Crockett banking heavily that the African American community will come out in support of her,” Jones continued.
Still, even a dominant early vote lead doesn’t guarantee anything. “I suspect Democrats are front loading more than normal, so about 35% on election day,” Jones cautioned, “but in a close race between Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico, that election day turnout can spell the difference between victory and defeat.” In other words — the record early numbers are real, but the story isn’t written yet.
Before You Head to the Polls
Dallas County Elections Administrator Paul Adams is urging voters to do their homework before showing up on election day, which runs from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. on March 3. “We’re encouraging voters to utilize our website or call the elections department to find your designated voting location before heading to the polls,” Adams said. Voters can check their assigned location at DallasCountyVotes.org or by calling 469-627-8683.
The records are already set. What happens next is up to whoever actually walks through the door on Tuesday — and in a race this close, that might be the only number that matters.
