Texas political heavyweights are jockeying for position in what’s shaping up to be a dramatic primary season, with U.S. Rep. Chip Roy emerging as the early frontrunner in the Republican race for attorney general while Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller maintains a commanding lead for reelection.
A recent University of Houston poll shows Roy with 33% support among likely Republican voters in the attorney general race, giving him a 10-point advantage over state Sen. Mayes Middleton, who garnered 23%. On the Democratic side, state Sen. Nathan Johnson leads the primary field with 25% support.
Statewide Races Taking Shape
The comptroller’s race has former state Sen. Don Huffines ahead in the Republican primary with 33% support, outpacing Railroad Commissioner Christi Craddick at 21% and acting Comptroller Kelly Hancock, who trails at just 13%. Nearly a third of voters — 29% — remain undecided in that contest.
Incumbent Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller appears poised for renomination, commanding nearly half the Republican electorate at 48-49% support. His challenger, Nate Sheets, lags significantly behind at 18%, though a substantial 34% of voters haven’t made up their minds yet.
Things are considerably tighter in the Railroad Commissioner race. What’s happening there? Incumbent Jim Wright holds just a paper-thin lead of 21% to challenger James “Jim” Matlock’s 20% — with a whopping 41% of Republican voters still undecided, suggesting the race remains wide open.
Governor’s Race and General Election Outlook
Democrats looking to challenge Republican Gov. Greg Abbott appear to be coalescing around state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, who leads the Democratic primary with 37% support. Still, nearly a third of Democratic voters (32%) haven’t settled on a candidate, according to the UH poll.
Looking ahead to potential general election matchups, Abbott maintains a 7-point advantage over Hinojosa (49% to 42%), while Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick leads his likely Democratic challenger Vicki Goodwin by a somewhat narrower margin of 46% to 41%.
Senate Showdown: Cornyn vs. Paxton
Perhaps the most closely watched contest is the Republican U.S. Senate primary, where Attorney General Ken Paxton is challenging incumbent Sen. John Cornyn. The UH poll shows Paxton with a 7-point lead over Cornyn (38% to 31%) among likely Republican voters.
The Democratic Senate primary features U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett leading state Rep. James Talarico by 8 points (47% to 39%) according to UH’s findings. But polling isn’t unanimous on this race.
A separate survey from Emerson College tells a different story, showing Talarico ahead of Crockett 47% to 38%. “Talarico has built momentum among Hispanic (59%) and white (57%) voters, while a majority of Black Democratic primary voters (80%) support Crockett,” the Emerson poll notes.
The Republican Senate primary results also differ in the Emerson poll, showing a much tighter race with Paxton at 27% and Cornyn at 26% — essentially a statistical tie.
With significant portions of the electorate still undecided in many races and conflicting poll results in others, Texas’s 2026 primary landscape remains fluid. The candidates now face the challenge of solidifying their bases while persuading the substantial bloc of fence-sitters before voters head to the polls.
