A high-stakes battle for Texas Democrats’ U.S. Senate nomination is heating up, with Rep. Jasmine Crockett pulling ahead in recent polls as the March 3 primary approaches. Early voting begins soon in a race that could determine who challenges Republican incumbent Ted Cruz in what remains an uphill battle in the traditionally red state.
Three Democrats are vying for the nomination: U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, state Rep. James Talarico, and businessman Ahmad Hassan. The latest University of Houston Hobby School poll shows Crockett leading with 47% support among likely voters, followed by Talarico at 39%, Hassan at 2%, and 12% undecided.
Rising Stars Face Off
Crockett, who has represented a southern portion of Dallas in the U.S. House since 2023, announced her Senate candidacy in December 2025. She currently serves on the House Judiciary Committee as ranking member of the subcommittee on oversight and vice ranking member of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. Her national profile rose as a co-chair of the Harris-Walz campaign and speaker at the Democratic National Convention.
“If we continue to have the same electorate as the last 30 years, then we are doomed to get the same results. The only path forward for a Democrat to get elected statewide in Texas is by expanding the electorate,” Crockett stated. “I can connect the dots between Trump’s failed policies and the people’s pain.”
Her main challenger, James Talarico, has represented portions of the Austin area in the Texas House since 2018. The former middle school teacher and Presbyterian seminarian first won in District 52 — which had voted for Trump in 2016 — before moving to District 50 after redistricting. The eighth-generation Texan has built a reputation for viral progressive policy moments tied to Christian values.
Rounding out the field is Ahmad Hassan, owner of Alexandria Realty and Mortgage, who’s running on a platform of making Texas affordable and safe with no deportation without due process. This isn’t Hassan’s first rodeo — he previously sought the Democratic Senate nomination in 2024 and has run twice for U.S. House.
Polling and Demographics
The race dynamics appear to favor Crockett, who holds an 8-point lead over Talarico according to University of Houston researchers. She’s leading among Latino voters 46% to 37% and enjoys higher name recognition, with 92% of respondents knowing enough about her compared to 85% for Talarico.
What’s driving Crockett’s advantage? Political observers point to her national profile and strong base in the Dallas area. Before her Congressional service, Crockett served in Texas House District 100 from 2021-2023 and gained prominence by participating in a 2021 Texas House quorum-bust, flying to Washington D.C. to lobby for federal voting legislation when Texas Republicans pushed voting restrictions.
“We’re leading amongst almost all demographics and that is because the people know I’m more than lip service — I’m the leader they know and the fighter they trust,” Crockett explained.
Growing Tensions
The campaign hasn’t been without controversy. The Democratic primary race has grown increasingly contentious, with disputes over alleged racial comments. Crockett has slammed Talarico for what she characterized as a “mediocre Black man” remark, while some podcasters have questioned Crockett’s statewide electability.
Money has poured into the race as well. When Crockett first ran for Congress in 2022, she received endorsements from retiring Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson and a substantial $1 million from Sam Bankman-Fried’s PAC before his cryptocurrency empire collapsed.
“I’m reassembling our winning Democratic coalition,” Crockett noted. “That’s why billionaires are pouring money into a super PAC that’s running attack ads against me. My entire career, I’ve fought the system, and this is yet another example of the system fighting me back.”
Is this race just about personalities? Not according to Crockett’s campaign platform, which emphasizes fighting for basic needs, lowering costs without subsidies, boosting jobs in manufacturing and clean energy, and serving as an independent voice not aligned with former President Trump.
“For too long, Texas has elected Senators who have defended politics as usual and protected the status quo, while Texans pay the price,” her campaign website declares.
As early voting approaches, Texas Democrats face a choice between two rising stars and a businessman outsider — all arguing that Texans deserve “public servants, not kings.” But whoever emerges victorious will face the daunting challenge of trying to flip a Senate seat in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat statewide since the 1990s.
