The battle for Texas’s 2026 Senate Republican nomination has turned into a three-way slugfest with Attorney General Ken Paxton holding a slim lead over incumbent John Cornyn, while a significant bloc of voters remains undecided, polls show.
Recent surveys paint a volatile picture of the high-stakes primary. An Emerson College poll found Paxton with 27% support to Cornyn’s 26%, with Wesley Hunt trailing at 16% and nearly a third of voters still undecided. However, a University of Houston Hobby School survey showed Paxton extending his lead to 38% over Cornyn’s 31%, with Hunt still at 17%.
The increasingly bitter contest has morphed into a referendum on conservative credentials, with Paxton hammering Cornyn as insufficiently loyal to right-wing principles. Specifically, the attorney general has criticized Cornyn’s support for Ukraine aid, the DREAM Act benefiting DACA recipients, and his role in crafting bipartisan gun safety legislation after the Uvalde school shooting.
Big Money and Bigger Names
The race has attracted heavyweight Republican figures and serious cash. Former Texas Governor Rick Perry chairs the Lone Star Freedom Project, which has already poured nearly $18 million into efforts supporting Cornyn against Paxton. “Republicans up and down the ticket will pay the price of having an albatross like the corrupt attorney general hung around their neck,” Perry warned. “We haven’t lost a statewide election in Texas since 1994, but we could this year if the wrong person is at the top of the ticket.”
Cornyn himself hasn’t minced words about what he sees as the existential threat Paxton poses to Republican control. “I love my job, I love this great state, and I am not willing to stand on the sideline and see it destroyed by nominating a flawed candidate like Ken Paxton,” the senator declared recently, adding that GOP control of the Senate could be at risk if voters aren’t careful.
What’s driving this unusual intra-party warfare? The numbers tell part of the story – with neither candidate likely to clear the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff, both camps are fighting fiercely to secure their position for what would be a May showdown between the top two finishers.
The dynamics reflect broader tensions within the Republican Party, where traditional conservatives like Cornyn increasingly find themselves defending their records against challengers who position themselves as more aligned with the party’s Trumpian wing.
As early voting continues across the Lone Star State, the outcome remains anything but certain. With millions in attack ads flooding the airwaves and high-profile endorsements still in play, this primary battle may yet see significant shifts before voters render their verdict – and potentially force these rivals into a head-to-head runoff that would extend this political family feud well into spring.
