President Trump’s second-term honeymoon with Republican voters appears to be fading fast, as new polling reveals a stark disconnect between how supporters remember his first administration and how they’re experiencing his current one.
A year into Trump’s unprecedented second term, his base is giving him significantly lower marks on key economic issues compared to their rosy recollections of his first presidency, according to AP-NORC polling data.
The gap is particularly pronounced on kitchen-table concerns. Just 16% of Republicans believe Trump has helped “a lot” in addressing the cost of living in his second term — a dramatic plunge from the 49% who, in April 2024, recalled him making major progress on the same issue during his first administration, the poll shows.
Approval Ratings Stuck in Neutral
Trump’s broader popularity isn’t faring much better. The president’s approval rating stands at 38%, according to a January Marist Poll, essentially unchanged from December numbers. The lack of movement suggests Trump’s recent policy initiatives and messaging efforts haven’t moved the needle with the American public one way or the other, pollsters indicate.
What’s behind the tepid numbers? Economic reality seems to be colliding with campaign promises. While Trump campaigned on bringing immediate relief to American families struggling with inflation, many of his core supporters are still waiting for those benefits to materialize in their daily lives.
Similar patterns are emerging across other policy areas, including job creation and health care, where Republican voters’ current assessments fall short of their remembered satisfaction from Trump’s first term.
“Memory can be selective,” said one political analyst who requested anonymity to speak candidly. “Voters often romanticize past administrations, especially when comparing them to difficult present circumstances.”
Net Disapproval Territory
The Silver Bulletin, run by polling expert Nate Silver, places Trump’s net approval rating at -12.1 as of mid-January 2026, barely changed from -11.4 at the start of the year. This indicates more Americans disapprove than approve of his performance by a margin of over 12 percentage points, the bulletin notes.
Despite the challenging numbers, Trump maintains firm support from his base on issues like immigration and foreign policy, areas where his administration has implemented some of its most aggressive policy changes.
But it’s the economy, stupid — to borrow a phrase from another administration. Republican voters who expected immediate economic relief appear increasingly impatient as the second year of Trump’s return to office begins.
How long will their patience last? That remains the central question for Republican strategists looking ahead to the 2026 midterms. With congressional campaigns already beginning to take shape, GOP candidates will need to decide whether to embrace or distance themselves from the president’s economic record.
For now, the White House continues to project confidence, pointing to long-term economic plans that officials say will eventually deliver the prosperity Trump promised on the campaign trail. Whether voters will give him time to make good on those promises may determine the political landscape for the remainder of his historic second term.
