Texas Senate primaries remain tight as high-profile candidates fail to break the crucial 50% threshold needed to avoid runoffs, according to two newly released polls offering contrasting pictures of both Republican and Democratic contests.
In what’s shaping up to be one of 2026’s most closely watched Senate races, Attorney General Ken Paxton appears to be leading the Republican field — though by significantly different margins depending on which survey you believe.
Dueling Polls, Different Leaders
A University of Houston Hobby School poll conducted January 20-31 shows Paxton with a comfortable lead at 38% among likely Republican primary voters, ahead of incumbent Sen. John Cornyn at 31% and Rep. Wesley Hunt trailing at 17%. But an Emerson College/Nexstar Media poll paints a much tighter race, with Paxton barely edging Cornyn 27% to 26%, and Hunt at 16% — with a whopping 29% of voters still undecided.
The Democratic side shows equally conflicting data. The UH Hobby poll puts Rep. Jasmine Crockett in front with 47% among likely voters, followed by State Rep. James Talarico at 39%. Yet Emerson’s survey flips those results entirely, showing Talarico leading with 47% to Crockett’s 38%.
What explains these stark differences? Polling methodology, timing, and sample composition likely play roles. The UH Hobby poll surveyed likely primary voters in late January, while Emerson’s timing and exact methodology differs.
“Neither Ken Paxton nor John Cornyn appears positioned to reach 50% on the primary ballot, as the Republican electorate remains sharply divided,” noted Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “With Wesley Hunt gaining traction at 16%, a runoff between the two candidates now appears likely in May.”
Demographics Driving Divisions
The Democratic contest reveals stark demographic splits that could determine the eventual nominee. “Talarico has built momentum among Hispanic (59%) and white (57%) voters, while a majority of Black Democratic primary voters (80%) support Crockett,” Kimball explained. “Men also break for Talarico 52% to 30%, while women are about evenly split.”
Money matters, too. FEC filings show Talarico has raised an impressive $13.1 million compared to Crockett’s $6.5 million, giving him a significant financial advantage heading into the final stretch.
Republican Civil War
Is the Republican primary becoming a proxy war between the party’s establishment and its rightward flank? The matchup between longtime Senator Cornyn and firebrand AG Paxton certainly suggests so.
If forced into a runoff, Paxton appears well-positioned. The UH Hobby poll shows him leading hypothetical head-to-head matchups against both Cornyn (51%-40%) and Hunt (56%-33%). A polling average from multiple surveys gives Paxton a 42% share of likely primary voters, with Cornyn at 27.5% and Hunt at 15% — numbers that have remained relatively stable since Texas Southern University’s May 2025 poll.
The undecided factor looms large in both primaries, with each showing double-digit percentages of voters who haven’t made up their minds. With 12% undecided in the Democratic race and between 12-29% undecided among Republicans (depending on the poll), there’s still room for significant movement before primary day.
Favorability ratings could provide additional clues to the eventual outcomes. The UH Hobby School poll found Talarico enjoying the highest net favorability at 20% — a potential advantage if the Democratic race heads to a runoff.
As the primary season heats up, these contrasting polls highlight not just the competitiveness of Texas’ Senate race, but also the challenges in accurately predicting such high-stakes contests where small shifts in turnout or late-breaking developments could dramatically alter the final results.
