In what could be the tightest Senate primary race Texas Democrats have seen in years, Rep. Jasmine Crockett and former state Rep. James Talarico are locked in a virtual tie, with just one percentage point separating the frontrunners vying to challenge Republican Sen. Ted Cruz.
A new Texas Public Opinion Research poll shows Talarico narrowly leading with 38% support compared to Crockett’s 37% among likely Democratic primary voters. With 21% of voters still undecided and a margin of error of ±3.7%, the race remains anybody’s guess with less than two months until the March primary.
“Crockett and Talarico are running neck-and-neck in the Texas Democratic primary for U.S. Senate,” said Luke Warford, director of TPOR. “Texas Democrats are saying loud and clear that they want a candidate who puts the general election in play by both appealing to Trump voters and energizing the Democratic base,” he added.
A Tale of Two Demographics
The poll reveals stark demographic divisions between the candidates’ bases of support. Crockett, who has built a reputation as a progressive firebrand, holds advantages among Black voters, women (39%-35%), and middle-aged Texans. She particularly outperforms with voters aged 35-49, where she leads Talarico by eight points (44%-36%).
Talarico, meanwhile, has carved out his own coalition. The former teacher maintains stronger support among white and Latino voters, college graduates, and men, where he holds a slim 38%-37% edge. He also performs better with both the youngest voters (18-34) and seniors (65+).
Name recognition could prove crucial as the campaign intensifies. Despite being newer to the statewide political scene, Crockett enjoys significantly higher visibility, with 69% of likely primary voters viewing her favorably compared to 52% for Talarico. More telling is that while only 15% of voters say they’re unfamiliar with Crockett, that number jumps to 27% for Talarico — suggesting room for growth if he can introduce himself to more voters.
Why the disparity? Recent media exposure likely plays a role. The poll indicates that 56% of voters report seeing or hearing something about Crockett recently, compared to just 41% for Talarico.
The Electability Question
Both candidates face the same fundamental question: Can they actually beat Cruz in November? It’s a tall order in a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988.
Crockett’s supporters appear slightly more confident in her chances, with 40% “very convinced” and 39% “somewhat convinced” she could win a general election. Talarico’s backers show a bit more hesitation, with 36% “very convinced” and 44% “somewhat convinced” of his November viability.
That said, primary voters seem united on strategy. A whopping 85% of respondents believe the Democratic nominee must win over at least some Trump voters to have any chance of victory, with particular emphasis on appealing to working-class, Latino, and young voters.
“As the election draws nearer, both candidates will have to make the case to Democratic voters that they can get the job done in November,” Warford noted.
Down-Ballot Uncertainty
While the Senate primary has crystalized into a two-person race, other statewide contests remain far murkier. In the gubernatorial primary, state Rep. Gina Hinojosa leads with 29%, followed distantly by former U.S. Rep. Chris Bell at 4%, Bobby Cole at 3%, and Zach Vance at 1%. But the dominant figure in that race is indecision itself — a staggering 59% of voters haven’t made up their minds.
The picture is even hazier in the Attorney General race, where state Sen. Nathan Johnson claims just 10% support, former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski 5%, and Tony Box 2%, leaving 78% of voters undecided.
With the March primary approaching and early voting beginning in just weeks, both Senate frontrunners will be racing to lock down their bases while making inroads with the crucial one-fifth of voters who remain on the fence. For Texas Democrats hoping to mount a serious challenge to Cruz, the stakes couldn’t be higher — and the margin for error couldn’t be slimmer.
