Two incumbent members of Congress are fighting over the same seat — and neither one is walking away without a fight. Tuesday’s Democratic primary for Texas’s redrawn 33rd Congressional District has produced exactly the kind of messy, precedent-defying contest that political scientists rarely get to see up close.
Former U.S. Senate candidate Colin Allred leads sitting Rep. Julie Johnson by roughly 11.5 percentage points in early returns, but he’s fallen short of the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff. With neither candidate clinching an outright majority, the race is almost certainly headed to a May 26 runoff election, according to results tracked Tuesday night. On the Republican side, the picture is even murkier — Patrick Gillespie holds a narrow lead at around 35% with more than half the vote counted, trailed closely by John Sims, Monte Mitchell, and Kurt Schwab, each hovering near 20%.
A Race Unlike Most Others
Here’s the thing that makes this contest genuinely strange: both candidates are incumbents. Allred gave up his old 32nd District seat in 2024 to mount an unsuccessful Senate run against Ted Cruz. Johnson, who had represented the former 33rd District, stepped into Allred’s old territory when Texas Republicans redrew the maps. Now Allred is back — running against the woman who replaced him, in a district that contains about a third of his former constituents.
SMU political science professor Calvin Jillson put it plainly: “You don’t normally get two incumbents, particularly one who left a congressional district, and then tries to return and runs against the person that replaced him,” he told KERANEWS. That’s something of an understatement.
The newly drawn 33rd District is a creature of Texas’s latest redistricting cycle. It now covers only central Dallas County — no longer straddling parts of Tarrant County as it once did. The district runs from Grand Prairie to Reinhardt, takes in swaths of Oak Cliff, and encompasses roughly half of the city of Dallas. Its electorate is notably diverse: 38% Hispanic, 35% white, and 20% Black, according to demographic data published late last year. And it leans hard to the left — Kamala Harris would have carried it by nearly 33 points in 2024, making it one of the more reliably Democratic seats in the state.
Money, Endorsements, and Sharp Elbows
Allred came into Tuesday with significant structural advantages. He’d raised $5.4 million through mid-February, dwarfing Johnson’s $1.5 million, and had locked up endorsements from a broad swath of local Democratic officials. His campaign leaned into his congressional record, highlighting his role in securing $135 million in federal funds for the region. He also went after Johnson on ethics grounds, criticizing her for accepting corporate PAC contributions and engaging in stock trading while in office — a line of attack with obvious resonance in a Democratic primary, reported CBS News.
Johnson, for her part, didn’t sit still. She pointed to her record on healthcare and housing, distanced herself from the stock-trading controversy by divesting from actively managed accounts, and voiced support for a ban on congressional trading. On immigration, she’s called for reforming ICE rather than abolishing it. And on foreign policy, she backs a two-state solution in the Israel-Palestine conflict — a position that could matter in a district as diverse as this one. She’s also been clear that she sees Allred’s return as opportunistic, a kind of political homecoming that conveniently followed a bruising Senate loss.
What Comes Next
Still, Allred’s lead heading into a potential runoff isn’t nothing. More than 11 points is a real margin, and his fundraising advantage means he’ll have the resources to sustain a longer campaign if it comes to that. But runoffs are different animals — lower turnout, sharper contrasts, and a smaller electorate that can swing unpredictably.
On the Republican side, the four-way split means that race is heading toward its own runoff, with Gillespie as the current frontrunner but far from a lock. Whoever emerges will face a steep climb in November in a district drawn to be won by Democrats.
Two incumbents. One seat. A district that didn’t exist in its current form until recently. And a race that, if nothing else, is a reminder that in Texas politics, the map is never really settled — and neither are the ambitions of the people running on it.
