It came down to the final seconds — and when it was over, Ohio State was heading home. TCU’s Xavier Edmonds banked in a layup at the buzzer Thursday to lift the Horned Frogs over the Buckeyes, 66-64, in one of the more stunning first-round exits of the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
The finish was as dramatic as March gets. Edmonds took a feed from David Punch in the closing moments and converted the game-winner, capping a TCU comeback that left Ohio State fans staring at the scoreboard in disbelief. The Buckeyes had entered as favorites. They left with nothing.
The Upset Nobody Should Have Seen Coming — But Kind of Did
Here’s the thing: some analysts had been quietly bullish on TCU all week. CBS Sports noted that the Horned Frogs would beat Ohio State “nine times out of 10” because of their athleticism — a bold claim in hindsight that now looks like prophecy. The Frogs had the legs and the length to make life miserable for Ohio State’s offense, and that’s exactly what happened.
Still, the betting markets weren’t buying it — at least not initially. Ohio State opened as a -2.5 point spread favorite, with a moneyline of -145 to TCU’s +120, and a total set at 146.5 points. BetMGM listed those figures ahead of tip-off, reflecting a market that respected Ohio State’s regular-season résumé but wasn’t exactly pounding the table for them.
Covers.com suggested before the game that TCU’s defense — particularly its ability to force turnovers — made the Frogs a legitimate play to cover the spread. The site pegged TCU’s moneyline at +115, a number that aged very, very well for anyone who pulled the trigger.
What the Numbers Said — And What They Missed
numberFire gave Ohio State a 60.1% win probability heading in, leaning on the Buckeyes’ track record as favorites and their statistical profile. FanDuel Research published that projection Thursday morning. Sixty percent feels comfortable until the ball goes up — and then it means nothing.
Ohio State wasn’t a paper tiger, either. The Buckeyes came in at 21-12, had rattled off four straight wins before a late Big Ten stumble, and were averaging a robust 79.8 points per game while shooting 49 percent from the floor. On paper, they were sharp. Bleacher Nation documented those figures alongside TCU’s own strong run — the Frogs had won six straight entering the tournament, finishing 22-11 and playing their best basketball at exactly the right time.
That’s the catch with March. Teams don’t play their averages. They play the moment.
A Layup That Will Echo
Edmonds’ buzzer-beater wasn’t just a basket — it was a statement. TCU’s athleticism, the very thing analysts kept circling back to in the days before tip-off, showed up when it mattered most. Punch’s pass was precise. Edmonds’ finish was calm. And Ohio State, for all its regular-season polish, couldn’t answer.
In a tournament that has a way of making fools of favorites, the Buckeyes became the latest cautionary tale. The final score was 66-64 — two points, one possession, and an entire offseason of what-ifs for Columbus.
TCU moves on. And somewhere, the person who took the Frogs at +120 is sleeping very well tonight.
